During the first quarter, the volume of foreign trade increased significantly. The trend that is present in the Montenegrin economy is that imports are significantly higher than exports. Such a trend was also recorded in the first quarter, when imports were 1.6 times higher than total exports. High growth rates were recorded in both exports and imports of goods and services. While, on the one hand, there were multiple effects on GDP due to the growth of exports, on the other hand, due to the growth of imports, they were reduced. The total export was at the level of EUR 666.2 million, which represents a real growth of 28.8% compared to the first quarter of 2022. The export was mainly stimulated by the growth of the export of services, since the export of services makes up two thirds of the total export. According to data from the Central Bank, in the first quarter of this year there was a 59% increase in the export of transport services and a 162.2% increase in the export of tourism services. However, in contrast to other periods of the year, in the first quarter there was a significantly higher share of the export of transport services due to the pronounced seasonal nature of the economy. On the other hand, the export of goods reached EUR 226.8 million, which is 5% more than the previous year. A slightly higher real growth was recorded in the import of goods and services (29.0%), which in the first quarter was at the level of EUR 1096 million. Unlike exports, the most important part of the import structure is the import of goods (72.6%).
Analyzed from the point of view of structure, the export of goods is dominated by raw materials and semi-finished products. In the first quarter, electric current, non-ferrous metals (primarily aluminum and aluminum alloys), medicinal and pharmaceutical products and metalliferous ores and metal scrap had the largest share in the export of goods. The significant decrease in aluminum production during the previous year and finally the suspension of production this year had an impact on exports. On the other hand, the export of electrical energy, which was previously directed to the aluminum production sector, increased. One of the limitations is the insufficient level of finalization of products, considering that the export structure mostly includes products that serve as inputs for further production, thereby losing additional benefits. On the other hand, one should keep in mind the comparative advantages and the size of the economy in explaining the relationship between exports and imports. In many cases, it is cheaper to import products than to produce in domestic companies.
The countries to which Montenegrin products are mostly exported are mainly the countries of the region of Serbia and Bosnia and Herzegovina, but also European countries such as Slovenia, the Czech Republic and Switzerland. On the other hand, the largest imports during the first three months were from Serbia, China, Germany and Italy. Certainly, the chance for export growth is represented by the large Chinese market. Fairs organized in China can represent an excellent platform and way for small Montenegrin producers to access the big market. At the end of May this year, producers from Montenegro participated in the third China-CEEC Expo and International Consumer Goods Fair 2023, which was held in Ningbo in China, which represents a significant opportunity to connect Montenegrin and Chinese companies and establish cooperation. An increased export of products would affect the operations of companies from Montenegro as well as the trade balance.
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