Montenegro’s Ministry of Finance has warned that potential U.S. tariff measures and an escalation of global trade tensions could reduce the country’s economic growth by 0.5 percentage points and decrease cumulative budget revenues by approximately €60 million (0.6%) in the medium term. This is outlined in the newly adopted Macroeconomic and Fiscal Policy Guidelines for 2025–2028.
The ministry notes that while direct trade with the U.S. is limited, indirect effects could be significant due to the impact on Montenegro’s key economic partners—such as the EU, Serbia, and Bosnia and Herzegovina—particularly in tourism, trade, and investment.
Although initial U.S. tariff plans would apply only a minimal 10% rate on Montenegrin goods, tariffs on key trading partners would likely be higher, potentially slowing their economic growth and, by extension, affecting Montenegro’s economy.
Despite these risks, the ministry points to potential upside scenarios including stronger EU integration efforts, improved global trade relations (e.g., between the U.S., China, and EU), and accelerated infrastructure projects that could offset some negative effects.
The latest IMF forecast, cited in the document, projects a global economic growth of 2.8% in 2025, down from earlier estimates of 3.3%, mainly due to trade and geopolitical tensions.
