Montenegro is at risk of losing up to 3.8 million overnight stays as new visa regulations for travelers from Turkey, Russia, and Belarus are set to take effect on November 1. This shift aims to align Montenegro’s immigration policies with those of the European Union, potentially impacting the tourism sector significantly.
According to estimates from the Centre for Tourism Research and Development, visitors from these three countries represented approximately 20-21% of all tourists in Montenegro last year. The anticipated drop in arrivals could pose a serious threat to hotels, private accommodations, airlines, and real estate along the coast.
The Centre indicated that if these markets are lost, Montenegro would need to attract about 4.75 million additional overnight stays from other regions to compensate for the deficit. Projections suggest that the country is expected to reach around 16.5 million overnight stays by 2026.
The estimates provided are not official forecasts and are contingent upon the effectiveness of the visa implementation process and subsequent visitor behaviors. The immediate concern lies primarily with tourism businesses that heavily rely on Russian, Turkish, and Belarusian clientele.
Hotels, restaurants, airlines, and tour operators may experience reduced demand, especially during off-peak seasons when individual markets play a more crucial role in overall visitor numbers. Additionally, the potential fallout could extend into the real estate sector.
Demand from Russian and Turkish buyers has been significant in coastal areas and the capital city of Podgorica. Stricter travel regulations could undermine parts of the rental market as well as short-term spending by visitors.
This policy change aligns with Montenegro’s broader obligations regarding EU accession, particularly under Chapter 24, which addresses justice, freedom, and security. However, this alignment presents a policy trade-off: while it strengthens Montenegro’s credentials for EU membership, it may incur substantial short-term economic costs unless alternative tourism markets can be developed swiftly.
The challenge is particularly pressing for airlines and hotels due to their need for advance planning regarding capacity and marketing strategies. To offset the potential loss of millions of overnight stays, increased demand will need to be generated from Western Europe, Central Europe, the Gulf region, Israel, and other markets alongside enhanced air connectivity and more vigorous promotional efforts.
Montenegro has recently seen growth in air travel capacity and shoulder-season demand for 2026; however, a sudden decline in established markets could test the resilience of this diversification strategy. Thus, the upcoming visa changes represent more than just an administrative update; they may lead to significant shifts in demand across various sectors of Montenegro’s tourism economy.
