The World Bank forecast Montenegro’s economy will grow 3.3% in 2026, raising its projection by 0.4 percentage points from spring, in its Western Balkans economic report published on 27 October 2026. The estimate excludes potential economic and fiscal effects of the government’s Euro model measures.
Growth is expected to accelerate from an estimated 2.7% in 2025, supported by consumption, investment and a successful tourism season, the report said. The World Bank projects expansion of 3% in 2027 and 3.1% in 2028; the 2027 forecast is 0.1 percentage points lower than previously projected, while the 2028 estimate is unchanged.
The government has announced the Euro model measures to improve living standards and speed Montenegro’s convergence with the European Union. The World Bank said that as the measures are developed, preserving public-finance sustainability and strengthening productivity and private-sector investment would be important. The World Bank Group continues dialogue with Montenegrin authorities on policies for sustainable growth and EU convergence.
Regional growth and trade reforms
Across Albania, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Montenegro, North Macedonia, Serbia and Kosovo, the World Bank expects growth to rise from 2.6% in 2025 to 3.1% in 2026, reaching 3.4% in both 2027 and 2028. Its estimates and projections use data available through 16 September 2026.
The report said regional trade in goods and services reached 107% of Western Balkans gross domestic product in 2025, compared with the European Union average of 90%. Services exports quadrupled between 2010 and 2025, but the World Bank said further reforms are needed to help businesses benefit from access to international markets by cutting unnecessary administrative and regulatory costs.
Average import tariffs in the region are about 6%, while non-tariff measures add costs of about 10% of import value, rising above 20% in some agri-food sectors. Restrictions on cross-border services are estimated to impose a cost of 29%. The report identifies unnecessary permits, repeated inspections, certification procedures and local-presence requirements among remaining barriers.
World Bank simulations indicate that removing half of the remaining import barriers could lift regional GDP by up to 12.5% over the medium term. The bank recommends simplifying and digitising procedures, using risk-based inspections and recognising compatible standards and qualifications, while retaining safeguards that serve legitimate public interests. It also reported that about one-third of new regional export ventures survive beyond their first year, while only 1% to 4% remain in export markets through year five.
