The International Energy Agency warned that global energy markets are unlikely to return to their prewar state even during 2027, following the start of the U.S.-Israeli war against Iran. Rising oil prices and supply disruptions pose a serious threat to the world economy.
The World Bank also warned that the global energy market is entering a period of great uncertainty. The U.S. administration delayed sanctions on Russia and allowed diesel deliveries to the United States, slowing the rise in prices.
Analyst and mining engineer Marko Adžić said future oil prices would depend on passage through the Strait of Hormuz. Relations between the Houthis and Saudi Arabia remain uncertain, he said. If new fighting breaks out in Saudi Arabia or Iran, a barrel of oil could reach $140 or $150, he warned.
Montenegro’s fuel reserves
Europe and import-dependent Montenegro are exposed to the effects of energy market movements. Adžić said moving away from cheap Russian energy had left the country facing higher inflation. He also questioned how future increases in petrol and diesel prices could be controlled.
Economist Stevan Gajević expects no stabilisation in energy markets this year or probably in the years ahead, particularly after Israeli elections amid continued military threats. He said Montenegro has options to protect living standards and maintain stable fuel supplies, but identified its underdeveloped strategic reserves of oil products as the first problem.
Montenegro has recently begun building those reserves in earnest. An official report puts about 40% of the reserves in storage in Croatia and Greece. Keeping some stocks abroad is not unusual in Europe, but a serious international crisis raises questions about how quickly and securely they could be accessed.
Gajević warned that Montenegro might not be able to rely on the stocks in a crisis if deliveries were interrupted or cooperation faltered. Strategic reserves cannot permanently lower fuel prices; their purpose is to safeguard supply. He said the position would be more favourable if existing storage capacity at the Port of Bar, Bijelo Polje and the Bay of Kotor had been made operational.
“My position has always been that all those reserves should be brought home,” Gajević said. Adžić said storage facilities should have been restored and filled earlier, when fuel prices were lower, leaving the question of how Montenegro can control future petrol and diesel price increases.
