Montenegro is entering a pivotal phase in its bid for European Union membership, as European officials now refer to this period as the “endgame” of its accession process. Preparations for the country’s accession treaty have commenced, positioning Podgorica as the most advanced candidate among Western Balkan nations since it began negotiations with the EU in 2012.
This development marks a significant shift, as the EU is no longer viewing Montenegro merely as a long-term candidate but is actively engaged in establishing institutional mechanisms for its potential membership. In April, EU ambassadors approved the formation of an ad hoc working group dedicated to drafting Montenegro’s accession treaty, indicating that EU membership is now seen as a viable medium-term goal.
The government led by Prime Minister Milojko Spajić has set ambitious targets, aiming to close all negotiating chapters by the end of 2026 and achieve full membership by 2028. Currently, Montenegro has provisionally closed 14 out of 33 negotiating chapters, making it the most advanced candidate in the region. The country has already met critical interim benchmarks for Chapters 23 and 24, which focus on judiciary matters, rule of law, and security—key areas for completing the final phase of negotiations.
The tone within European institutions has evolved significantly. European Enlargement Commissioner Marta Kos recently noted that Montenegro is “in the endgame,” while acknowledging that substantial reforms remain ahead. The European Commission characterized Montenegro and the EU as being “closer than ever” after over fourteen years of negotiations.
This political momentum is underpinned by broader geopolitical considerations. The invasion of Ukraine by Russia has reshaped the EU’s enlargement strategy, with Western Balkan integration viewed increasingly as a strategic necessity to mitigate geopolitical risks and counter Russian and Chinese influence in Southeast Europe.
Montenegro aligns well with this strategic framework. Unlike Serbia, Podgorica has fully supported EU sanctions against Russia, joined NATO, and maintained a pro-Western foreign policy stance. Consequently, Brussels regards Montenegro as a politically stable accession candidate capable of demonstrating that EU enlargement can still achieve tangible results.
Spajić has framed EU membership not just in financial terms but as a project focused on strategic security and market access. Statements from regional media indicate that Montenegro perceives its EU accession primarily through lenses of stability, single market access, and geopolitical positioning rather than solely infrastructure funding.
The economic implications of EU membership could be substantial. Integration into the world’s largest single market may reduce sovereign borrowing costs, enhance investor confidence, and boost capital inflows into sectors such as tourism, infrastructure, renewable energy, and logistics.
This potential has already begun to influence investment trends across Montenegro’s economy. Developments in luxury tourism, coastal real estate, marina projects, renewable energy initiatives, and infrastructure financing are increasingly predicated on the expectation that Montenegro will transition from a peripheral Adriatic market to a fully integrated EU member state.
The banking sector, sovereign debt market, and foreign direct investment flows are particularly sensitive to these perceptions. EU accession is anticipated to bolster institutional credibility, enhance regulatory predictability, and expand access to European financial mechanisms. For an economy heavily reliant on tourism and foreign capital inflows, these factors could significantly reshape long-term growth trajectories.
However, the final stage of negotiations could prove challenging. Although technical progress has accelerated over the past two years, remaining chapters involve politically sensitive reforms related to judicial independence, anti-corruption measures, institutional appointments, public administration reform, and media freedom.
European institutions have cautioned that successful implementation will be crucial for Montenegro to reach its goals. This emphasis on implementation stems from past experiences with democratic backsliding among some member states. Commissioner Kos indicated that future accession treaties may incorporate “stronger safeguards” against rule-of-law deterioration post-membership.
Consequently, Montenegro faces a more stringent accession environment compared to earlier enlargement waves. Domestic political fragmentation remains a concern; the coalition landscape is unstable and includes pro-European factions alongside nationalist forces and identity politics stemming from its post-Yugoslav history. Fitch Solutions recently warned that achieving the 2028 target might be “overly ambitious” due to ongoing challenges in judicial reform and anti-corruption efforts.
The broader European context also plays a role in Montenegro’s accession journey. Despite renewed momentum for enlargement following 2022, EU member states remain cautious about accepting new members amid rising internal political fragmentation and geopolitical uncertainties.
Nonetheless, Montenegro’s path appears more advanced than any previous Western Balkan candidate since Croatia’s accession to the EU in 2013. Brussels is effectively testing whether the enlargement process can yield credible success stories once again.
For Montenegro, the next eighteen months will be critical not only for its own European aspirations but also for validating the credibility of the EU’s broader strategy in the Western Balkans.
