Recent analysis indicates that Montenegro’s merchandise exports in real terms have decreased compared to two decades ago, while imports have significantly increased. This trend highlights the growing reliance on tourism and services to offset one of Europe’s largest structural goods-trade deficits.
The nominal value of merchandise exports rose to approximately €572 million in 2025 from €441 million in 2006, marking a modest increase of about 30%. In contrast, imports surged more than threefold, reaching around €4.46 billion, up from €1.46 billion, as reported by the Chamber of Economy of Montenegro.
When adjusted for an estimated cumulative price growth of 84% over these years, merchandise exports fell by roughly 30% in real terms, whereas imports increased by approximately 64%. Consequently, the export coverage of imports declined from 30.3% in 2006 to about 13% in 2025, indicating that Montenegro now imports nearly eight euros worth of goods for every euro exported.
This trend persisted into 2026, with Montenegro exporting €312.9 million worth of goods during the first seven months—a decline of 4.4% year-on-year. Imports rose by 3.4% to €2.61 billion, further reducing the export coverage ratio to 12%.
The data reflects a persistent weakness in Montenegro’s economic structure since independence. While tourism, real estate, consumption, and investment have expanded, there has been a lack of development in a manufacturing sector capable of replacing the aluminium and metals industries that previously dominated external trade.
Total merchandise trade increased from about €1.9 billion in 2006 to over €5 billion in 2025, primarily driven by rising imports. Imports grew by about 201% over the last two decades, contrasting with nominal export growth of only around 29%-30%.
The changing landscape shows that Montenegro increasingly relies on importing vehicles, machinery, fuel, food, pharmaceuticals, metals, plastics, and consumer products while generating most foreign income through tourism and related services.
In 2025, machinery and transport equipment accounted for about €1.11 billion of imports, which included more than €420 million in road vehicles. This pattern continued into early 2026, with machinery and transport equipment again being the largest import category at €623.7 million, including €242.5 million of vehicles.
The decline in metals production has been central to the worsening goods balance. In 2006, aluminium and basic metal products were significant components of Montenegro’s exports. However, despite a more diversified export mix today, no substantial industrial sector has emerged to replace metals as a key foreign-exchange earner.
The Chamber of Economy noted that electricity has become one of Montenegro’s largest individual export products. In the first seven months of 2026, mineral fuels and related products contributed €99.3 million to exports, including €70.5 million in electricity. However, these electricity exports are subject to volatility due to factors such as hydrology and regional power prices.
The geographic structure of trade has also evolved; Serbia remains Montenegro’s largest trading partner in both exports and imports. In the first seven months of 2026, Montenegro exported €78.7 million worth of goods to Serbia while importing €449.4 million.
Bosnia and Herzegovina followed as the second-largest export destination at €36.5 million, with Kosovo third at €24.5 million. The changing export structure indicates a growing orientation towards neighboring markets as the significance of Italy has diminished following the decline of the metals industry.
This shift is particularly beneficial for Montenegrin food and beverage exports as companies can compete more effectively within regional markets than within the larger EU single market.
The role of China has also expanded significantly; it transitioned from a minor supplier in 2006 to becoming Montenegro’s second-largest source of imports by 2025 at around €549 million. In early 2026 alone, China supplied €338.2 million worth of goods.
The European Union remains Montenegro’s primary trade bloc but its share has declined from around 52% in 2006 to approximately 42% in 2025. Meanwhile, the share accounted for by other countries doubled during this period due largely to China’s growing importance.
The services balance plays a critical role in mitigating the external deficit; without it, sustaining Montenegro’s merchandise deficit would be challenging. The surplus in services rose from about €166 million in 2006 to €1.6 billion in 2025, equating to nearly 20% of GDP.
This growth is primarily attributed to tourism revenues which have increased significantly over time but now account for a smaller share relative to other expanding service sectors.
The current economic model relies heavily on foreign tourist spending to finance imports across various sectors such as fuel and construction materials. While strong tourism revenues support this model, they also expose Montenegro to vulnerabilities associated with fluctuations in international travel or investment.
The ongoing challenge for Montenegro will be balancing growth across tourism and domestic production capabilities without further exacerbating import dependence.
The latest data underscores that despite some positive trends within service sectors and tourism revenues, structural issues regarding merchandise exports remain unresolved as evidenced by continuing declines against rising import levels.
This situation emphasizes the need for strategic developments aimed at fostering local production capabilities alongside maintaining robust service-based income streams.
