Montenegro’s economy is facing a growing imbalance between imports and exports, a trend that could have severe consequences, according to economic analyst Davor Dokić. He argues that this is largely due to the long-term neglect of domestic production, excessive reliance on imports, and the lack of systemic measures to support the local market.
Preliminary data from Monstat shows that the country’s total foreign trade in goods reached €1.08 billion in the first quarter of the year, a 6.8% increase from the same period last year. However, exports dropped slightly to €150.1 million, while imports rose by 8.1% to €934.1 million. As a result, export coverage of imports fell to 16.1%, down from 17.5% a year earlier.
Dokić highlights rising inflation, energy instability, and deepening trade imbalances as major challenges. He criticizes the government’s continued populist spending, such as the “Europe Now” programs, which have added significant strain to public finances without fostering production or investment.
He calls for attracting foreign direct investment and launching development projects that would stimulate GDP growth and reduce the need for further borrowing. Dokić stresses that Montenegro’s economy remains overly simple and import-dependent, with little domestic production or support for manufacturers.
He draws a comparison to former U.S. President Donald Trump’s economic policies, suggesting that Montenegro needs to protect its domestic production through subsidies or other support mechanisms. He also criticizes the country’s poor use of available EU funds, noting that less than 20% of IPARD funds are being utilized.
Dokić concludes that the growing trade deficit and high public spending are unsustainable. Still, he sees potential in the country’s natural resources, particularly in agriculture. With better organization and a shift in policy focus, he believes Montenegro could reduce its economic vulnerability and build a more resilient economy.
Monstat data further shows that the main export items were mineral fuels and lubricants, particularly electricity, while imports were dominated by machinery and vehicles. The main trading partners in exports were Serbia, Switzerland, and Slovenia, while the top import sources were Serbia, China, and Germany. Most of Montenegro’s trade occurred with CEFTA members and the European Union.
